Joe Firestone’s Blog on the Black Swan

Black Swan Ideas (1): Mediocristan, Extremistan, and Randomness
Black Swan Ideas (2): Silent Evidence, Confirmation Error, Epistemic Arrogance, and Future Blindness
Black Swan Ideas (3): Lottery Ticket and Ludic Fallacies, Mandelbrodtian Randomness, Gray Swans, and the Narrative Fallacy
Black Swan Ideas (4): Platonic Folds, Platonicity, Randomness, Retrospective Distortion, and the Round-trip Fallacy
Black Swan Ideas (5): The Black Swan and Knowledge Management